U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 49% to 45% in a new St. Pete Polls survey conducted for Florida Politics. It is Moody’s widest lead in three surveys by the pollster. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
The poll of 916 likely voters was taken Oct. 25 through 27, using automated calls and peer-to-peer texts. The sample leans Republican by 12 points, while state voter rolls show a Republican edge of about 8 points. Reweighted to a 10-point Republican sample, Moody’s lead drops to 48% to 45%. Using the registration split, Nixon trails 46% to 47%.
Early voting figures through Tuesday morning showed Republicans and Democrats nearly even, with Republicans at 40% of the 3.15 million ballots returned and Democrats at 39%, according to the Division of Elections. Respondents who have already voted favor Nixon 56% to 41%, while those who have not voted favor Moody 57% to 34%. Three in five Republican respondents said they had not yet voted.
The poll shows Nixon leading independents 53% to 36%, and Moody holding 84% of Republicans. Nixon leads Miami 49% to 46%, while Moody leads West Palm Beach 48% to 46%.
The University of North Florida released a survey last week with the same topline, Moody 49% to 45%.
