The National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Isaias was centered in the Gulf of Mexico as of 11 p.m. Wednesday Eastern time, about 22.9 degrees north latitude and 91.9 degrees west longitude, with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph. The center’s advisory package, Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6, was issued at 3 a.m. UTC Thursday.
The forecast gives the Florida Panhandle the highest chances of tropical-storm-force winds. Forecasters put the chance of sustained winds of at least 39 mph at Destin Executive Airport at 36 percent starting Friday morning, with a 54 percent cumulative chance through early Saturday. Whiting Field near Milton shows a 63 percent cumulative chance of those winds, and Pensacola shows 66 percent by Saturday. Panama City has a 45 percent cumulative chance.
Chances are lower farther inland and to the west. Montgomery, Alabama, has a 32 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds, and Mobile has a 42 percent chance. Chances of hurricane-force winds, at least 74 mph, remain small along the Florida coast, with the highest values in the forecast at 9 percent at Destin and 14 percent at Pensacola.
For Florida readers, the update means Panhandle and Big Bend residents should monitor the forecast closely, as the state’s emergency declaration already covers 25 counties in those areas. Wind probabilities can change as the storm moves, and the hurricane center will issue updated advisories.
