Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody is favored to keep her seat, but polls show her race against Democrat Angie Nixon tightening ahead of Tuesday’s Election Day vote. A St. Pete Polls survey commissioned by Florida Politics found Moody at 49% and Nixon at 45% a week before the election. Most other polls also place the race within the margin of error.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report have both moved the contest from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
Moody, a former two-term attorney general, was appointed to the Senate after President Donald Trump tapped Marco Rubio for secretary of state. Nixon, a former state representative from Jacksonville, won the Democratic nomination in August with 56% of the vote, beating Alex Vindman after he declined to debate her.
Money has poured into the race. Through Oct. 14, Moody reported $14.5 million raised, while Nixon reported $11.3 million. Outside groups have spent heavily, including $10.3 million from a super PAC attacking Nixon and $6.48 million from a Jacksonville-based PAC targeting Moody.
The campaign has also turned on controversy. Nixon has tied Moody to the Hope Florida scandal over a Medicaid settlement, and Moody has criticized Nixon’s answer on whether Cuba is a dictatorship and her membership in the Democratic Socialists of America.
Florida has 5.69 million registered Republicans and 4.15 million Democrats among its 13.7 million voters. Because the race is a special election, the winner must run again in 2028 for a full six-year term.
