Florida voters go to the polls Tuesday, and the question is whether the national Democratic momentum reaches the state. More than 5.4 million Floridians already cast ballots by mail or during early voting, which ended Sunday. Registered Republicans hold a 2.4-point lead in votes cast, 40.2% to 37.8%, according to the Florida Phoenix. Nonpartisan and third-party voters account for 22% of ballots.
Republicans hold a voter-registration advantage of more than 1.5 million, and GOP officials expect to dominate Election Day turnout, as they have in recent cycles. In the Aug. 18 primary, Republican Election Day turnout was double the Democratic figure.
The governor’s race is close. Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by an average of about 4 points in the RealClearPolitics average. Jolly called the race “a pure tossup.” Donalds has raised nearly $174 million, compared with less than $27 million for Jolly.
Voters will also decide a U.S. Senate seat, choosing between Republican Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon, and all 28 congressional seats, which were redrawn this year under a new map that is being challenged in court. Three constitutional amendments are on the ballot, including Amendment 3, which would raise the homestead exemption and could reduce local revenue by nearly $12 billion a year after five years.
Legislative races include rematches in Hillsborough and Palm Beach counties, where Democrats won special elections in March. Democrats are seeking to escape their supermajority minority status in the state House and Senate.
